Economy may be affecting population growth

The county census of just over 530,000 has risen by about 10,000 people annually this decade, but those have been rather typical growth years. As we all know, 2009 is not a typical year.

Those in the people counting business are finding that the recession’s stubborn presence is causing them to cope with some complications and unknowns. What is known is that housing construction has slowed dramatically, and that means fewer people than usual will be living in newly built homes.

Based primarily on those housing construction declines, in fact, officials in the fast-growing Blue Valley and Olathe school districts confidently predict that enrollments will not rise nearly as much as usual this year. In fact, districts throughout the county expect shrinking enrollments.

Knowing all that, common sense might tell you that population growth overall will be slowed down as well. Ask those in the business of census guessing whether that is a valid conclusion, however, and they will answer with a definitive maybe.

John Rod, Overland Park’s manager of community planning, is charged with producing annual population estimates for the city. He said that while housing permits indeed are an important factor in developing projections, other rather hard-to-read factors also are at work. One of those is vacancy rates in established homes and apartments.

RealFacts, a national agency that tracks occupancy rates on rental properties, reported last week that Johnson County rental vacancies are increasing slightly this year.

That could indicate that there are fewer people living in rental housing. Or not.

What the RealFacts report cannot provide is firm figures on how many people are living in each unit, and that rate well could be increasing.

Allan Quigley, executive director of the nonprofit Johnson County Housing Coalition, has observed a change in living arrangements that could complicate things for population counters.

“We are seeing more people doubling up (in housing) with friends and relatives,” Quigley said. “It is increasingly difficult for certain populations to find a place to rent. If you have plenty of money, there’s no problem. But for those (with lower incomes) it can be a real challenge.”

So when an affordable place is found, multiple parties are teaming up to occupy it and save money on rent and utilities in the process.

RealFacts’ Denise Castellucci said the agency also is aware that doubling-up is happening more often these days, though figures are not available on the scope of it.

“We are finding it especially where there is high unemployment,” Castellucci said.

Quigley said younger people more commonly are the ones who double-up. Those who finish high school and do not go to college can face particularly difficult circumstances, he said.

“Teens get thrown out of the house and on their own. That’s always been the case. But now they can’t go back home, and there are fewer jobs, so they can’t find good work. That means there is an increasing number of completely unprepared kids (for independent living),” Quigley said. “They are couch surfing, and ... two or three of them are working at McDonald’s and sharing rent.”

The official U.S. Census is undertaken only once every decade. Consequently, a definitive headcount has not been done since 2000.

In non-census years, states, counties, cities and school districts do the best they can to estimate population changes based on factors such as birth counts, new housing starts, and historical trends. When in the midst of historical events like a recession, the latter gauge gets less reliable.

Nevertheless, county growth cities were lowering expectations for population growth even before the recession hit full force last fall.

Olathe, still the fastest-growing of 100,000-plus cities in both Kansas and Missouri, is seeing a significant slowdown in population expansion.

David Abrey, the city’s long-range planner, said population grew in Olathe by 3,600 in 2005, and by another 3,820 in 2006. But the estimates were downsized to about 1,700 in 2007 and only 1,028 last year. At the midpoint of this year, the city estimates that it only has added 129 people in 2009.

It is not hard to understand why population projections there are falling. The city was issuing more than 1,000 single-family home permits annually early in the decade, but only 331 were issued last year. Through the first half of this year, only 131 have been issued.

Overland Park has seen similar decreases in home building activity in recent years, and the recession has made the past year particularly slow.

Again, however, those harder-to-read population factors such as occupancy rates make it unclear to the city’s planners just how much the overall census is being affected.

As for the birth rate, the change from year to year in the county has been so small that it does not alter the overall population significantly.

The Kansas Department of Health and Environment soon will release its annual report on birth rates, and it will show there were 7,843 Johnson County births in 2008. That is down from the 7,904 in 2007. KDHE officials say it is difficult to know whether the recession will have any effect on birth numbers this year.

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