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Going bright red

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Steve Rose Memo Archives
Written by Steve Rose, Publisher   
Wednesday, 25 November 2009 01:00

rose.steve.new.color.new.webThere is one thing we know with near certainty, now that Dennis Moore has announced he will not run for re-election to Congress. The 3rd District, dominated by Johnson County, will have its first Republican congressman in a dozen years. And it is likely to stay that way for many, many years to come – maybe for our lifetime.

No Democrat from Johnson County has any name recognition or clout like Moore did to beat the Republican candidate. Dennis Moore had been a district attorney and community college trustee for nearly two decades before running for Congress. We can’t even think of a Democrat from Johnson County who is known at all.

 

And it will take a nominee from Johnson County for either party’s nominee to win the election. The key to winning the congressional race is to carry heavily populated Johnson County by only about 47 percent – with Wyandotte always running about 75 percent Democratic. The small part of Douglas is too small to much matter.

Dennis Moore clearly was vulnerable. Our headline, should he have run, would have been simply “Dennis Pelosi.”

Our six-term congressman had drifted so far to the left and become such a rollover for the Democratic leadership, he was losing support from those thousands who had crossed party lines to vote for him in the past. In his first term, Moore voted with his party 83 percent of the time and took courageous positions on issues like NAFTA, against his party and, particularly, the unions who had supported him.

But more recently, Dennis Moore has voted with Nancy Pelosi – a strong liberal leader of the House – virtually 100 percent of the time. And that would have been a recipe for likely defeat.

He was vulnerable, but despite that, his past winning track record and his ungodly sums of campaign funding from unions and others kept many Republicans out of the race.

That has now changed. As we look forward to the free-for-all among Republicans, the issue facing this district and the nation will be whether we will be sending a conservative or a moderate Republican to Congress.

My bet is, when all is sorted out, we will end up with a pro-life conservative.

The reason is simple. All the hoopla aside, when push comes to shove, only about 20 percent of registered Republicans will bother to vote in the August primary election. And that small turnout is always dominated by the more conservative wing of the party.

With campaign funding splintered among so many, the get-out-the-vote grassroots conservative has the clear edge. The only exception might be a very wealthy moderate who could fund a campaign out of his or her own pocket.

Under past circumstances, the conservative always lost to the more moderate Dennis Moore in the high-turnout November general election. But without Moore, and his multimillion-dollar war chest, you can bet a conservative will march right in.

That will give Kansas a total sweep of Republicans, starting with a governor Sam Brownback, probably most or all other statewide elective offices, and, now, all four congressional seats. And nearly all will be conservatives.

The majority of the rest of the nation may be going blue, but our 3rd District and our state are going bright red.

 

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written by cbarker, November 26, 2009
Incredible! I actually agree with the entire analysis. I'll add two things to it:
(1) There are a lot of very energized conservatives out there, energized by a deep desire to alter the the course of events to met their vision for the county, state, and nation.
(2) In your years in Johnson County how often have you seen the Johnson County Republican Party, more than a year before the general election, with a large fully operational office, open every day, staffed full time by numerous volunteers; conducting grass roots organizing classes for activists; establishing a conservative communications network with websites, weekly newsletters, bloggers, facebook, etc; and reaching out to every elected, candidate, and conservative group in the county?
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written by Benny Profane, November 28, 2009
Vision??? Is that what you just said? Are you intentionally trying to be funny? Republicans have no vision for the Country whatsoever. Their sole response to everything is "NO" and to be as obstructionist as possible...and the American people are tired of it. That's why only 20% of the American electorate is registered Republican. Not exactly good news for your side repug. The American people responded to your failed policies by throwing you out! Get it? And your "NEW" platform is....let me guess... more tax breaks for the rich and deregulation? What a surprise! Where have I heard that before? Do you really think you are going to draw the "Independents" you need nationally with dolts like Limbaugh and Palin running your party?

You know what would really impress me is if you guy's actually learned from your mistakes and realized that your policies led to: Torture, two wars, economic collapse, increased revenue for mercenaries and defense contractors (instead of schools and public infrastructure), the raping of the Country by Wall street through deregulation,unpresented environtmental destruction etc., etc. I could write a book. Republicanism has utterly failed and is unlikely to rear it's ugly, greedy head anytime soon at least nationally. The only place it can find a place to leech on the poor and middle class is in the backwaters of the South and Kansas. In other words only the most backward parts of our Country. And don't count your chickens repug. There's always the Christian right loons in Kansas to screw up all your plans, it's happened before and we'll do our best to make sure it happens again. There are also an awful lot of people leaving the big cities and coming to places like Kansas, (most of them registered Democrats). The Christian right pizzles helped us get Sebelius and Moore and it could very well work again in the future. We obviously don't need more Roberts, Brownback's and Tiahrt's. What an embarrassment to our State.

Once again a big, big salute to Congressman Dennis Moore and his exceptional service to our State. An intelligent and humble man who always put our State first and had the vision and courage to do what was right.
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written by cbarker, November 28, 2009
Sounds like someone is a little angry and desperate. Steve Rose's article was on Johnson County and Kansas, but you seem to miss his point and focus your hatred at the national level. Your superficial characature of republicans is so simplistic and inherently wrong it is silly. Johnson County is one of the most affluent and successful counties in the country thanks to years of Republican leadership. If you don't like it, go to California.

Rose is right, Kansas and JoCo are going even more Republican in 2010. The democrats can't even find a real democrat to run for governor, and are using a republican. Cong. Moore saw the writing on the wall and quit while he was ahead. By the way, where is the local democratic party office?
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written by anna, November 29, 2009
Where is the 2nd comment getting its facts. The article was pointing out that Johnson County, already strongly Republican, was experiencing the same trends as the rest of the country.

Here are some current facts:

The intensity factors favors the GOP: The Daily Kos poll shows that 81% of republicans intend to vote in Nov 2010, 65% of independents, and only 56% of democrats.

72% of independents favor the GOP, while only 28% favor the democrats. (Gallup)

57% believe the Obama administration has the country going in the wrong direction. (Gallop)

In a generic election held today the GOP wins 44% to 37% (Rasmussen) or 48% to 44% (Gallop)

And those are national figures, just think what is like around here. People like the way the republicans have run this county-good schools, good roads, good services, clean government, safe neighborhoods, massive growth in the bio-science and animal health industry.


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written by Benny Profane, November 30, 2009
Hah! Barker you are a scream! If anyone's desperate it's got to be the Republican shills I keep watching on t.v. every night try to explain why their base is at 20% and why Bush/Cheney will be remembered as the worst administration in history. But you "deregulation" "tax breaks for the rich" "free market's always right" clowns voted them into office....remember? Hopefully you finally realize how wrong you were...but I doubt it. You have no vision and no healthcare plan in less we include the (what was it 7 page coloring book) presented by Republicans as their serious proposition for healthcare reform....as I recall it was mainly about tax breaks....surprise! All Bohner and the repug's. can do is obstruct.

It's easy to characterize Republicans because you just keep saying the same thing over and over and you are wrong over and over. Reagan=four recessions and voodoo economics. Bush=Trickle down economics and recessions. Bush II=One of the worst economic debacles of the century because Bush/Cheney left the banking system and Wall Street unregulated. Clinton=Surprise! Budget Surplus. You guy's really aren't that complicated. You believe in free markets and making as much money as possible at the expense of others and you don't care how it effects the environment or anything else and democrats believe in doing what's just for everyone. Two different philosophy's...the difference is that even Greenspan has admitted that he was wrong about "the invisible hand". When are the Republicans going admit their economic policies were a disaster...never....but then we already figured that out....that's why you're out in the wilderness as a party. Your policies failed.

Johnson County is affluent because they left Kansas City Missouri holding the bag during the "white flight" of the 1960's. They certainly don't pay taxes in Missouri. They have also consistently done nothing to contribute to the cost of maintaining stadiums or promoting the arts which is why people come to Kansas City in the first place and not Overland Park. Nobody cares about the Republicans in Overland Park because you're all in bed by 8:30.

Since you evidently have a difficult time following more than one topic I will quote from my post above. "Republicanism has utterly failed and is unlikely to rear it's ugly, greedy head anytime soon at least nationally". Please note the "nationally" part. Then I go on to talk about local issues and in particular the religious right in Kansas....(read all the way through what's actually written....I know it must be difficult for a Republican...but try) has consistently botched the chances of a moderate Republican going to Congress.

Let me point out something to you (again) genius since you evidently didn't read my entire post. Democrats have been able to put Sebelius and Moore into power and in Moore's cased for I believe six years in one of the most backward thinking/ignorant States in the Country. My god you have idiots like Brownback and Roberts in the Senate and you couldn't keep the dem's. out with 99.9% Republican base. A pretty pathetic record in one of the reddest States on the planet.
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written by Benny Profane, November 30, 2009
Well Anna....I'm not sure I know where to even begin in your case. Here's hoping you don't believe in the Easter Bunny. Let me let you in on a little secret....it's a long way til next November and the polls don't mean diddly (thanks for the Daily Kos poll though...I guess you thought that would impress a Democrat). Actually the Democrats have everything going for them in 2010 so don't believe everything you read. Do you think your "tea party's" led by Armey's "astro turfers" have turned the Country around? Hah! Please....they are entertainment for us because we can't believe people are that stupid. Please keep thinking that....and while you're at it run Palin and Beck for your frontrunners and we will see how they do. The Republicans are in the worst shape today they have been in their history. Obama resonates with people all over the world and has no problem maintaining the votes of students, Hispanics, blacks, unions and the majority of women. So, good luck!

Are you actually claiming that "good schools" come from Republicans? You do realize the majority of the American Teachers Association are Democrats right? Republicans are good at teaching how to screw people around, spin and lie....I'll give them credit for that. But if we want to teach Science (Not Creationism); biology; art; math; history; philosophy; sociology; psychology....I'll leave that up to intelligent people (a large portion of which are Democrats) I'll leave the P.R., Marketing and b.s. up to the Republican business types.

Good roads....I didn't know Republicans were responsible for good roads....unless you're trying to make a biting comparison with Missouri. Actually Republicans traditionally spend more on war and militarism than infrastructure. Of course if you have money and live in the burbs you will have nice roads. But that has nothing to do with Republicans.

Good services......hmmmmmm.....not really sure what you mean.....my guess is you don't either......like Planned Parenthood which your ultra-right friends in the Republican party are attacking? Please explain what services specifically.

Clean government. You mean like when Roberts and Brownback voted in favor of Haliburton and arbitration because they are in the pocket of the defense contractors and Boeing? Interesting theory, unfortunately not true. Or how about Kris Kobach and his links to white supremacists. Would that constitute "clean government". Don't even get me started on Republicans on a national level like Grassley, Ensign, Sanford, etc. Not to mention Bush and Cheney.

Your neighborhoods are safe because you live in Kansas which is one of the most segregated States in the Country. People of color are discouraged from moving West of Troost Avenue in case you haven't noticed. There is rampant racism with regard to housing, etc. Get it?

The bioscience's are being fought every step of the way by your Christian right brethren who don't understand the difference between a Zygote and a baby.

Animal health industry??? Do you mean...like....a tin box of dog biscuits from Harry & David that costs $30 dollars and is probably better than some homeless person is getting or do you mean in terms of genetically engineered livestock which increases your chances of cancer? Hey, Conagra's doin' a hell of a job! They're doing a good job of ruining our nations health and our environment.
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written by reader1, November 30, 2009
Mr. Profane, you say, "Your neighborhoods are safe because you live in Kansas which is one of the most segregated States in the Country. People of color are discouraged from moving West of Troost Avenue..."
Are you saying keeping out people of color leads to a low crime rate?
Sounds kind of racist to me.
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written by Benny Profane, November 30, 2009
It's unfortunate that I have to explain an elementary sentence to someone who pretends to write. Obviously, (at least for most intelligent people) the inference would mean that you are a State that shuns people who are not like you and you in fact have one of the worst records on 'race' in the Country. That you choose to try to turn it into a joke only shows me your lack of humanity and your arrogance. You might not think it was so funny if you witnessed a child without a parent because the parent was killed in a violent, crime ridden neighborhood that you promote with your ignorance.
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written by JohnAltevogt, December 07, 2009
Mr./Ms./It Profane is apparently one of Prof Paul Mirecki's acolytes of hate. For those who don't remember, there were about 20 or so of these morons like Profane all spewing out various racist, anti-Semitic, anti-evangelical and anti-Catholic drivel at much the same level of discourse as you see from him/her/it above. It cost Mirecki, as their faculty adviser, his position as Chair of his department along with barring him from teaching certain courses where his bigotry might become an issue. Essentially, on this blog, Profane's a troll. Check what few facts exist between the bile and you'll usually find that a) they're wrong, or b) more likely, an outright lie. And yes, he does have some kind of a hangup with the Troost Ave area and stereotyping its residents.
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written by Benny Profane, December 19, 2009
Hey (Pop's) Altevogt,

What about the lie the right wing smear machine tried to pass off as truth the other day? You know when the droolers on the right tried to accuse President Obama of closing a military base in Nebraska unless Ben Nelson dropped his anti choice position in the new healthcare bill? See that was completely debunked like most of the smear campaigns that the right wing tries to run because they aren't creative and have no idea's. That's almost as weird as you spying on a student group at a United States University (K.U.) where most people cherish freedom of thought and dissent.
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written by Benny Profane, December 19, 2009
You however ran a smear campaign against a private student group because you didn't like them speaking out against Creationism/Intelligent Design which the radical right was attempting to put into a public school system while insisting that it wasn't religion when it obviously was. So you actually supported Creationism/Intelligent Design and tried to sell this nonsense to the American taxpayer and their kids. I'll be looking for your comical spin on the Obama lie mentioned above.
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